This article explores the global risks associated with a hypothetical Ukrainian invasion of Russia, supported by NATO allies such as the U.S. and the U.K., through offensive and defensive realist frameworks. Offensive realism suggests NATO’s backing aims to assert dominance and weaken Russian influence, using advanced weaponry like the Storm Shadow missile as a show of power. Defensive realism, conversely, interprets Russia’s response as a rational defence against perceived Western encirclement, leading to a potential security dilemma. The study highlights the dangers of military escalation, where NATO’s actions could provoke retaliatory measures from Russia, potentially igniting a global conflict. It underscores the need for diplomatic measures to prevent escalation and maintain global stability.
Read MoreThe European Union, a longtime consumer of Russian hydrocarbons, have imposed economic sanctions against Russia's energy sector which was important to them and tried to diversify its energy sources, both by finding alternative partners (like the US) or speeding the transition to green energy (Council of the European Union, 2023). At the same time, Russia also tried to divert its energy exports towards Asia, including China and India, and have offered its cheap oil and gas for Asian customers.
Read MoreShangri la Dialogue yang ke 24 telah dilaksanakan di Hotel Shangri la, Singapura. Prabowo mengeluarkan suatu gagasan yang berbeda dari tahun sebelumnya. Dibandingkan dengan hanya menyerukan prinsip-prinsip yang bersifat umum, Prabowo membawa suatu proposal untuk menyelesaikan perang Ukraina dan Rusia. Walaupun memiliki gagasan yang baik, namun banyak sekali muncul kritikan terhadap proposalnya baik dari dalam maupun luar negeri.
Read MoreWith the War in Ukraine nearing its one-year anniversary, Russia has proven that it is still the main adversary of the western North Atlantic Alliance (NATO). While the current conflict presents several challenges to NATO, overcoming this may be the golden opportunity for NATO to solidify its unity. Also, examining how NATO responds to Russia’s aggressive behaviours is a way to observe the internal dynamics of NATO.
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